Two numbers sit side by side on the first page of the Town of Waxhaw's Fall 2026 Development Report, dated October 2, 2026. One is 1,466, the count of residential units approved and projected in the town's 2026 pipeline. The report calls it the largest annual approval total in its dataset. The other is 37, the number of homes actually completed in Waxhaw from January through September 2026.
Approval is one stage in a multi-step process, and in Waxhaw the gap between approved homes and finished homes is wider than it has ever been. The town's own staff project it will take years to close, which means the 37 says far more about this fall's market than the 1,466 does.
The Town's Own Report Shows the Gap
Construction in Waxhaw peaked in 2018 at 571 units. It cooled through 2022 and then fell to 16 units in 2024, the slowest year on record. The report attributes that drop to rising rates stalling new starts. In 2025 it partly recovered to 102 units, mostly townhomes.
2026 hasn't continued that recovery. The town permitted 11 new homes in Q3 2026, all detached single-family houses concentrated in the Preserve at Forest Creek subdivision. All 8 homes completed that quarter were townhomes in Blythe Mill. Q3 completions ran 86% below the town's 10-year quarterly average of 59 units. Staff describe 2026 as "consistent with the recent slowdown, not yet a recovery," with an estimated 42 more units left in this year's pipeline.
The forecast for the next few years is where the report gets more interesting. Developers' own schedules show a sharp rebound to roughly 684 units in 2028, almost 100 more than Waxhaw's best year on record. The town ran a second model that paces each project at the absorption rate typical for its size. That model shows a gradual climb to a plateau of about 270 units a year, roughly the town's 10-year average. Staff add that the largest approved communities are big enough that comparable projects have historically taken 9 to 12 years to build out, which more likely means finishing "in the mid-to-late 2030s than by 2032."
If you're deciding whether new Waxhaw supply will soon put pressure on resale values, the town's own forecast answers with a slow climb over years.
Where the Large Approvals Actually Stand
Three communities account for most of the pipeline the report flags. Each sits at a different point in the town's five-stage approval process, which ends at "Under Construction." The stages below come from the town's live developer projects page as of late October 2026. The town notes that its listed dates and plans may change.
| Community | Location | Builder or applicant | Approved units and types | Current town stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Park | 801 North Broome Street | Jones Homes USA | 850 units of apartments, townhomes and detached homes, plus 132,600 sq. ft. of retail and office | Pre-construction meeting |
| Yarbrough Farm | 7715 Waxhaw Highway | BRD Land and Investment | 485 single-family homes and townhomes | Pre-construction meeting |
| Adelina, Phase 1 | Providence Road S, between Gray Byrum and Sunset Hill roads | Shea Homes of the Carolinas | 486 units, single-family and mixed use | Under construction |
| Adelina, Phases 2 and 3 | Same site | Shea Homes of the Carolinas | 144 single-family homes and 108 attached townhomes | Staff and TRC review |
Emerson Park was approved on May 28, 2024, and Yarbrough Farm on October 22, 2024. Both are still a stage short of construction about two years later. The figures in the table aren't fixed. The town gives Emerson Park an 850-unit total, but the two subdivision phases it lists add up to 697. The Board approved Adelina on November 28, 2023, according to The Waxhaw Wall's Board vote log. At the time, Union County Weekly reported a 482-unit plan of 96 cottages, 231 townhomes and 155 single-family homes on 227.56 acres. The same report noted conditions that included a pedestrian-only Somerled Way connection and multi-use paths along the spine roads.
Unit counts and housing mix can change between rezoning and construction drawings. If you're watching one of these communities for a specific kind of home, the current construction documents give you a better read than the approval headline.
A Town Approval Doesn't Reserve Sewer Capacity
Between a town vote and a finished house sits a county step. Under Union County Water's published development review process, wastewater capacity is allocated at Step 5. That comes after the developer has obtained state permits and easements and has signed and recorded an extension agreement with the county.
Waxhaw's main treatment plant has limited room. Union County Water's wastewater capacity table shows the Twelve Mile Creek plant permitted for 7.5 million gallons per day. Its actual average flow is 5.126 MGD, but adding flows already committed to approved projects brings the total to 6.735 MGD. That puts 89.8% of permitted capacity in use or spoken for, based on a 12-month rolling average through August 2026.
An expansion is underway to raise the plant to 9.0 MGD. According to North Carolina's 2025 Local Water Supply Plan for Union County, construction began in January 2025 and is scheduled to finish in September 2027.
The town's report blames the slowdown on interest rates. No public record ties any specific Waxhaw project to a sewer delay, and the county hasn't announced a moratorium. Even so, the system each new subdivision has to connect to is nearly 90% committed, and its expansion is still almost a year from its scheduled finish. That fits the town's slower forecast better than the developers' 2028 peak.
What Waxhaw's Resale Market Did in September 2026
If new construction isn't flooding Waxhaw, the homes buyers are actually comparing this fall are mostly resales. The Canopy Realtor Association's Waxhaw report for September 2026, with data current as of October 5, shows a market that looks softer by its median and quicker by almost every other measure.
- Median sales price: $655,000 in September 2026, down 6.4% from $700,000 in September 2025. The year-to-date median through September was $698,500, down 3.7%.
- Days on market until sale: 42 in September 2026, down from 65 a year earlier.
- Share of original list price received: 95.1% in September 2026, up from 94.3%.
- New listings: 77 in September 2026, down 18.9% from 95.
- Inventory: 279 homes for sale at the end of September 2026, up 9% from 256, or 3.5 months of supply compared with 3.2.
Homes that sold in September 2026 sold in fewer days on market and closed closer to their original asking price than a year earlier. With 74 closed sales for the month, the median can move noticeably on the mix of homes that happened to close. Canopy also notes that its price figures don't account for seller concessions. Inventory grew even though September's new listings fell, which points to a year-to-date buildup. New listings through September were up 4.6% over 2025.
For a buyer, that means a bit more choice than last fall and a monthly median a little lower. On the homes that sold in September, though, sellers took a slightly larger share of their original asking price than a year earlier. Budgeting around a "falling" Waxhaw market misreads these numbers.
Providence Road Runs on an Even Longer Clock
The same lag shows up in the road most of these communities will feed into. NCDOT's NC-16/Providence Road project page, updated October 14, 2026, lists construction starting in 2029 on the proposed widening between Rea Road and Waxhaw Parkway, and NCDOT calls its future dates preliminary. The town's traffic projects page still shows a 2027 start, which predates NCDOT's current schedule.
Adelina's Phase 1, the one large approval actually under construction, fronts Providence Road S. Homes there will reach the corridor years before the widening is scheduled to begin. If you're weighing a home along Providence and your commute depends on that road, plan around today's two-lane reality, not the 2029 project.
Questions Buyers Ask About Waxhaw's Pipeline
Will 1,466 approved homes push Waxhaw resale prices down?
The town's own forecast spreads those homes over years. Its historical-pace model projects about 270 units a year, and staff say the largest projects could run into the mid-to-late 2030s. Only 37 homes were completed through Q3 2026, so new construction is a small share of what's available right now.
Which large Waxhaw community is actually being built right now?
Among the three largest approvals, the town lists only Adelina Phase 1, by Shea Homes of the Carolinas on Providence Road S, as under construction. Emerson Park and Yarbrough Farm are at the pre-construction meeting stage.
When does the Twelve Mile Creek sewer expansion finish?
The state's 2025 water supply plan for Union County schedules completion for September 2027, raising capacity from 7.5 to 9.0 MGD.
If you're deciding between a Waxhaw resale and waiting for one of these new communities, the timing matters as much as the price. I'm glad to sit down with the town's project stages and the latest Canopy figures and map out what each path would mean for your move. Let's connect at Morey Realty Group.
